What’s driving the Market?

abril 3, 2013 § Deja un comentario

Despite a global economic downturn, despite Cyprus situation or a reduction in top line growth for US companies, the markets seems unstoppable.

What is driving the market in this 2013?

mkt_driver_2013

Answer: $325 billions.

Pretty much the same driver since 2009…

mkt_driver_09_13

Interesting fact is the timing of the Fed increases. Like 2011, this 2013 abrupt expansion in the Fed assets seems to be triggered by bad news (Europe).

Just when the patient seems to be waking up, the Fed increases the anesthesia dose.

Is Europe Recovering?

marzo 21, 2013 § Deja un comentario

Sure, sure…

Even Greece Exports Rise in Europe’s 11% Jobless Recovery

Europe’s crisis-torn nations are paving an escape route to recovery.

From Ireland to Spain, the austerity demanded by policy makers in exchange for aid amid three years of debt woes is starting to deliver the competitiveness needed to restore economic growth even as the turmoil risks reigniting in Cyprus.

At the price of a doubling in unemployment and near-10 percent plunge in labor costs, the so-called peripheral euro nations are reviving manufacturing and trade. In Spain, exports reached a record 222.6 billion euros ($287 billion) in 2012. PSA Peugeot Citroen (UG) is hiring there and in Portugal.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-21/even-greece-exports-rise-in-europe-s-11-jobless-recovery.html

And in the mean time…

Eurozone downturn intensifies for second month running in March

Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 46.5 (47.9 in February). Four-month low.

  • Flash Eurozone Services PMI Activity Index(2) at 46.5 (47.9 in February). Five-month low.
  • Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI(3) at 46.6 (47.9 in February). Three-month low.
  • Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Output Index(4) at 46.5 (47.8 in February). Three-month low.

Data collected 12-20 March.

The Markit Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index fell from 47.9 in February to 46.5 in March, according to the flash estimate. The decline signalled an acceleration in the rate of contraction of business activity for the second consecutive month to the steepest experienced for four months. With the exception of a marginal increase in January of last year, business activity has fallen continually since September 2011. Manufacturing output fell in March at the fastest rate since December, while business activity in the service sector suffered the steepest decline since October.

Companies also reported that new business levels fell at the strongest rate for three months, dropping at the fastest rates since December and September in manufacturing and services respectively. Employment fell for the fifteenth successive month, reflecting the need to reduce capacity in line with the ongoing deterioration in inflows of new orders and a further marked decline in backlogs of uncompleted orders. The rate of job losses eased slightly for the second month in a row, and was broadly in line with the average seen throughout last year. Rates of job losses eased in both manufacturing and services.

http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2013/Mar/EZ_Composite_ENG_1304_FLASH.pdf

Please remind me what socialism look like.

marzo 12, 2013 § Deja un comentario

Wouldn’t it make sense for the government instead of intervening in the management of PRIVATE schools, to actually concentrate in improving access and quality of public schools?

Wouldn’t better public education put more pressure on private schools to become more affordable? I would think that the government can offer more incentives to great professors than private schools – and I mean not in terms of paychecks… tax credits? loans? Increased mobility for teachers wanting to relocate? Etc., etc.

Harvard-Led Colleges Pile on Faculty Perks as Student Costs Grow

March 12 (Bloomberg) — The  University of Chicago paid James  Madara $2.5 million in severance when he stepped down in 2009 as medical  dean and hospital chief. Madara, who remained on the faculty, later joined the American  Medical Association.

Congress is taking a look at such payments following  disclosures that Jacob  Lew, the new U.S.  Treasury secretary, received a $685,000 bonus when he left New  York University and had $1.5 million in housing loans from  the school.

http://www.sfgate.com/business/bloomberg/article/Harvard-Led-Colleges-Pile-on-Faculty-Perks-as-4347501.php

Must Read – Gangster Bankers: Too Big to Jail

febrero 14, 2013 § Deja un comentario

Good read from Matt Taibbi in Rolling Stones Mag

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/gangster-bankers-too-big-to-jail-20130214

Bien Ben Bien!

febrero 1, 2013 § Deja un comentario

2013-02-01_1145

Stay classy San Diego!

Euro Banks

enero 25, 2013 § Deja un comentario

The news du jour.

ECB Says Banks to Repay More Than Forecast of 3-Year Loan

The European Central Bank said banks will next week repay more of its emergency three-year loans than economists forecast in another sign the euro region’s debt crisis is abating.

Some 278 financial institutions will return 137.2 billion euros ($184.4 billion) on Jan. 30, the first opportunity for early repayment of the initial three-year loan, the Frankfurt- based ECB said in a statement today. That compares with the median forecast of 84 billion euros in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The ECB’s first loan totalled 489 billion euros and banks can continue to make early repayments in coming weeks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-25/ecb-says-banks-to-make-137-billion-euro-loan-repayment-next-week.html

Nonetheless we have:

delinquencies…

2013-01-25_0958_del

borrowings…

2013-01-25_0910_Borrowings

I guess it’s not necessary to mention the Monte dei Paschi di Siena scandal.

This is what window dressing is, and what the banks have being doing for some time now. Some believe that the banks operating beneath book value are just plain cheap; it is this lack of transparency and excess of debasement what represent their true value.

The explanation to this scheme from European banks & regulators is that banks are now primarily funding themselves with the short term revolving lines with the ECB.

In either case banks remain an interesting investment…

Contradicciones de $AAPL

enero 24, 2013 § Deja un comentario

Originalmente publicado el 16/Nov/12. Sera?

___________________________

Desde el punto de vista de valuacion $AAPL presenta una oportunidad interesante de inversion a tan solo a P/E de 11.95. Sin embargo en cuestion de sentimiento de mercado…

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