octubre 14, 2011 § Deja un comentario
Los mercados han seguido con su impresionante corrida hacia arriba. Del bajo del 4 de octubre a la fecha el S&P 500 ha subido 13.65%. Por otra parte el volumen operado no muestra ninguna confirmación clara de la tendencia a la alza. Sin embargo mainstream sigue positivo…
The market has collectively yawned on that news [S&P has downgradedSpainby one level]; that is, not only has the EUR not fallen on this news, it has actually strengthened. We can suggest that the collective “yawn” is due to the fact that S&P is simply catching-up with the downgrades imposed upon Spain last week by Fitch, however, once again, we note that a market that will not fall on bearish news is not bearish. The EUR, which will not fall on a downgrade of a country as large and as important to Europe as isSpain, is likely then to rally. This is an old rule; it is a good rule and it is a rule to be adhered to. History proves its worthiness.
Jim O’Neill – Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management
Could the Franc’s possible reversal be a symptom of broader things to come? Could it be that theUSeconomy is not in the process of moving back into recession? Could it be that European policymakers are finally about to put a floor under their immense problems? Or is it just a reflection of SNB determination and nothing more? And indeed, could it be that the Franc won’t stick to this weakening trend?
Thomas J Lee, CFA AC – Managing Director Chief US Strategist Currently
We are seeing broad-based improvements in risky assets with US Highyield spreads rallying 89bp (from 896bp wide to 807bp recently, Figure 22), to Euro sovereign CDS (Italy 5yr CDS down from 537bp to 444bp, Figure 25), to Bank CDS (Morgan Stanley 5yr CDS from 606bp to 358bp, Figure 26)—all of which, in our view, lends credibility to the S&P 500 rally from 10/4. We continue to look for a rally into YE, but acknowledge it is predicated on incremental improvements in the macro outlook.
El S&P 500 se encuentra en una resistencia importante en 1,223 y la siguiente semana se encuentra llena de reportes de resultados de empresas del 2ndo semestre. Mientras Europa siga comprando tiempo con sus vagos comentarios sobre una posible “solución” los mercados me parece seguirán a la alza.