Santo Contra el Rey del Crimen

octubre 1, 2012 § Deja un comentario

Conforme nos acercamos a las elecciones presidenciales americanas, solo existen noticias positivas (manipuladas?). El miércoles se tiene el primer debate presidencial, casualmente el miércoles se publican los datos mas recientes de desempleo. Sin duda un dato positivo este miercoles seria una muy buena y oportuna noticia para el candidato que actualmente ocupa la presidencia. No solo en México…

La noticia económica del día de hoy (Via Bloomberg).

Manufacturing in U.S. Expands Unexpectedly as Orders Rise

Manufacturing in the U.S. unexpectedly expanded in September, indicating the industry is stabilizing after three months of contraction.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-01/ism-index-of-u-s-manufacturing-increased-to-51-5-in-september.html

Mientras que las noticias económicas sin importancia.

Eurozone manufacturing downturn eases further

from Markit Economics

At 46.1 in September, the headline seasonally adjusted Markit Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted below the neutral 50.0 mark for the fourteenth successive month. Although the PMI rose to a six-month peak – up from 45.1 in August and above the earlier flash estimate of 46.0 – its average over Q3 2012 as a whole was only 45.1. This was below the prior quarter’s 45.4 and the weakest outcome since Q2 2009.

http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2012/oct/EZ_Manufacturing_ENG_1210_PR.pdf

UK Manufacturing PMI edges lower

from Markit Economics

The downturn in UK manufacturing production extended into its third successive month in September, as order inflows remained lacklustre and job losses continued to mount.

Key points:

  • Manufacturing PMI down to 48.4 in September
  • Production falls as new export orders decline
  • Cost inflation spikes on oil and food price increases

http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2012/oct/GB_Manufacturing_ENG_1210_PR.pdf

Chinese manufacturing output falls at fastest pace since March

from Markit Economics

Data in September signalled a stronger decline in Chinese manufacturing output, as the volume of new orders fell for the eleventh consecutive month. New export orders declined at the sharpest rate in 42 months amid reports of weak international demand, while lower workloads were linked to a fall in backlogs of work.

http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2012/oct/CN_Manufacturing_ENG_1210_PR.pdf

Japan

From Markit Economics

Manufacturing output falls sharply as exporters suffer from strong yen and falling demand

  • Manufacturing output falls sharply for second month running in August
  • PMI indicates further downturn in September
  • Downturn led by falling exports

http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2012/sep/Japan_manu_12_09_28.pdf

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Desaceleración Económica en México?

junio 21, 2012 § Deja un comentario

 Manufacturing surveys turn down in the US, Eurozone and China

  • US manufacturing expands at slower rate while downturns deepen in China and the Eurozone
  • Manufacturing prices fall
  • Global trade flows deteriorate

Flash manufacturing PMIs – Markit’s survey-based indicators of business conditions in the Eurozone, US and China – all deteriorated in June. Ongoing US expansion contrasted with deepening downturns in the Eurozone and, to a lesser extent China, but all three surveys point to a further weakening of global economic trends.

http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2012/jun/NOTE.pdf

 

Santo Contra la Magia Negra [Economic Decoupling]

mayo 25, 2012 § Deja un comentario

Economists cut India growth forecasts

Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Merrill Lynch became the latest global banks to downgrade India’s economic growth outlook on Friday, in a sign that the sharp slowdown affecting Asia’s third-largest economy is worsening.

Goldman cut India’s growth estimates to 6.6 per cent from 7.2 per cent for the fiscal year ending in March 2013, while BofA revised its forecast to 6.5 per cent from 6.8 per cent for the same period.

The two join Morgan Stanley, which revised its annual outlook for India’s economic growth to 6.3 per cent this week, blaming parliamentary deadlock for its downward revision. New Delhi is due to release its latest growth figures next Thursday.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e88c7f1c-a63d-11e1-9453-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1vuVHHCZO

Entonces, Inglaterra, Francia, Italia, Espania, Japon, Brazil, China e India en des-aceleracion económica mientras que Estados Unidos reduce desempleo y crece económicamente.

Buen fin de semana!

Ahora Tambien China

mayo 24, 2012 § Deja un comentario

China’s manufacturing sector growth slowdown continues

– HSBC ‘flash’ manufacturing PMI signals further worsening of business conditions

– Output rises, but employment, new orders and exports fall

– Cooling inflation provides greater scope for looser policy to support growth

A further deterioration in Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions was signalled by May’s ‘flash’ HSBC manufacturing PMI survey. At 48.7, down from 49.3, the headline PMI signalled a worsening of business conditions for the seventh successive month.

Looking at the component indexes that make up the headline PMI number, further reductions in total new orders, employment, stocks of pre-production goods and shorter lead times exerted a negative influence on May’s PMI reading. This was slightly offset by a rise in manufacturing production, albeit marginal, for the first time in three months.

http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2012/may/CN_NOTE_24_05_12.pdf

Con un país con cero transparencia, cualquier dato y comunicado oficial tiene que ser visto con cierto escepticismo, y es a través de fuentes externas y señales del mercado que podemos discernir una verdadera posición en referencia a lo que realmente esta pasando en China (e.g. https://vozabierta.wordpress.com/2011/11/23/australia-el-canario-en-la-mina/).

Las implicaciones a nivel mundial de una desaceleración  en la economía China son varias, sin embargo esta situación, cero transparencia y un alto nivel de corrupción, representa una oportunidad para México.

Un Descanso para la Globalización?

diciembre 5, 2011 § Deja un comentario

Parte de lo difícil de invertir en estos tiempos es buscar hacer sentido de lo que esta pasando tomando en cuenta las fuertes y muchas veces ocultas intervenciones por parte de los gobiernos en la economía y los mercados.

Para muestra, aparentemente a partir del 2011 la famosa globalización se tomo un pequeño y merecido descanso:

  • Eurozone contracts for third month running in November – 23 November 2011
  • Manufacturing weakness signaled as China PMI slumps to 32 month low – 23 November 2011
  • Japanese manufacturers report renewed decline in output – 30 November 2011
  • UK manufacturing woes intensify in November – 1 December 2011
  • Global PMI hits 29-month low in November – 2 December 2011

(http://www.markit.com/en/about/news/commentary/markit-economics/markit-economics.page)

Mientras que en Estados Unidos:

  • US manufacturing activity expanded in November for the 28th consecutive month, a monthly survey of supply executives revealed today. The PMI index of manufacturing activity was 52.7%, up 1.9 percentage points from October. New Orders increased 4.3 percentage points to 56.7%, the second straight month of growth after three months of contraction. A reading above 50% indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding. – 1 December 2011
  • US November Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; PMI at 52.7%; New Orders, Production and Employment Growing; Supplier Deliveries Faster; Inventories Contracting – 1 December 2011

Si el rumor sobre la globalización y sobre lo interconectados que están los sistemas financieros a nivel mundial es cierto, eventualmente deben converger hacia una sola dirección. O Reino Unido, Francia, Alemania, España, Japón, y China comienzan a crecer ó Estados Unidos requerirá de un muy seguro 3er estimulo monetario para el siguiente año.

Australia, el canario en la mina?

noviembre 23, 2011 § Deja un comentario

La importancia de seguir los mercados de deuda. A continuación anexo la curva de rendimientos de Australia – la cual esta totalmente invertida.

El motivo?

Manufacturing weakness signalled as China PMI slumps to 32-month low

Flash PMI™ survey data released today showed operating conditions deteriorating in November at the steepest rate since March 2009. This was signalled by a drop in the headline PMI from 51.0 in October to 48.0, which was the largest fall in the index since November 2008. The slump in the headline PMI marks a reversal of the promising, albeit modest, rebound in manufacturing sector growth registered last month. The survey suggests that economic growth will have slowed in the fourth quarter, and raises the likelihood of more robust policy easing by the Chinese authorities in the months ahead.

http://www.markit.com

El Milagro Chino

noviembre 21, 2011 § Deja un comentario

La riqueza de un país se puede bien identificar con el tamaño y la salud de su clase media. En el caso de China muchos inversionistas olviden esa enseñanza y se dejan llevar por los manipulados medios. Si bien China es un país con muchos recursos no debemos olvidar que su GDP/capita es tan solo de $7,500 dólares (México $14,000), mientras que las desigualdades sociales están a la orden del día y los niveles de corrupción son muy altos. La historia desafortunadamente siempre repite y los des-equilibrios tanto sociales, como en materia económica terminan por causar estragos que destruyen los sistemas solo para llevarlos nuevamente al equilibrio.

Monetary Fund Urges China to Ease State Controls on Banking

SHANGHAI — The International Monetary Fund warned China on Tuesday that tight government management of the nation’s banking and financial system was creating “a steady build-up in vulnerabilities” that could eventually damp economic growth.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/16/business/global/imf-warns-china-on-state-control-of-banking.html

Menos mal que encontraron una buena escusa:

China vice premier sees chronic global recession

(Reuters) – A long-term global recession is certain to happen and China must focus on domestic problems, Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan has said.

“The one thing that we can be certain of, among all the uncertainties, is that the global economic recession caused by the international financial crisis will be chronic,” Wang was quoted by the official Xinhua news agency as saying at the weekend.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/20/us-china-economy-global-idUSTRE7AJ06720111120

¿Dónde estoy?

Actualmente estás explorando la categoría China en DIARIO DE R. GUZMAN HUERTA EN WALL STREET ARENA.

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