What’s driving the Market?

abril 3, 2013 § Deja un comentario

Despite a global economic downturn, despite Cyprus situation or a reduction in top line growth for US companies, the markets seems unstoppable.

What is driving the market in this 2013?

mkt_driver_2013

Answer: $325 billions.

Pretty much the same driver since 2009…

mkt_driver_09_13

Interesting fact is the timing of the Fed increases. Like 2011, this 2013 abrupt expansion in the Fed assets seems to be triggered by bad news (Europe).

Just when the patient seems to be waking up, the Fed increases the anesthesia dose.

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Is Europe Recovering?

marzo 21, 2013 § Deja un comentario

Sure, sure…

Even Greece Exports Rise in Europe’s 11% Jobless Recovery

Europe’s crisis-torn nations are paving an escape route to recovery.

From Ireland to Spain, the austerity demanded by policy makers in exchange for aid amid three years of debt woes is starting to deliver the competitiveness needed to restore economic growth even as the turmoil risks reigniting in Cyprus.

At the price of a doubling in unemployment and near-10 percent plunge in labor costs, the so-called peripheral euro nations are reviving manufacturing and trade. In Spain, exports reached a record 222.6 billion euros ($287 billion) in 2012. PSA Peugeot Citroen (UG) is hiring there and in Portugal.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-21/even-greece-exports-rise-in-europe-s-11-jobless-recovery.html

And in the mean time…

Eurozone downturn intensifies for second month running in March

Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 46.5 (47.9 in February). Four-month low.

  • Flash Eurozone Services PMI Activity Index(2) at 46.5 (47.9 in February). Five-month low.
  • Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI(3) at 46.6 (47.9 in February). Three-month low.
  • Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Output Index(4) at 46.5 (47.8 in February). Three-month low.

Data collected 12-20 March.

The Markit Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index fell from 47.9 in February to 46.5 in March, according to the flash estimate. The decline signalled an acceleration in the rate of contraction of business activity for the second consecutive month to the steepest experienced for four months. With the exception of a marginal increase in January of last year, business activity has fallen continually since September 2011. Manufacturing output fell in March at the fastest rate since December, while business activity in the service sector suffered the steepest decline since October.

Companies also reported that new business levels fell at the strongest rate for three months, dropping at the fastest rates since December and September in manufacturing and services respectively. Employment fell for the fifteenth successive month, reflecting the need to reduce capacity in line with the ongoing deterioration in inflows of new orders and a further marked decline in backlogs of uncompleted orders. The rate of job losses eased slightly for the second month in a row, and was broadly in line with the average seen throughout last year. Rates of job losses eased in both manufacturing and services.

http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2013/Mar/EZ_Composite_ENG_1304_FLASH.pdf

Bien Ben Bien!

febrero 1, 2013 § Deja un comentario

2013-02-01_1145

Stay classy San Diego!

Euro Banks

enero 25, 2013 § Deja un comentario

The news du jour.

ECB Says Banks to Repay More Than Forecast of 3-Year Loan

The European Central Bank said banks will next week repay more of its emergency three-year loans than economists forecast in another sign the euro region’s debt crisis is abating.

Some 278 financial institutions will return 137.2 billion euros ($184.4 billion) on Jan. 30, the first opportunity for early repayment of the initial three-year loan, the Frankfurt- based ECB said in a statement today. That compares with the median forecast of 84 billion euros in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The ECB’s first loan totalled 489 billion euros and banks can continue to make early repayments in coming weeks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-25/ecb-says-banks-to-make-137-billion-euro-loan-repayment-next-week.html

Nonetheless we have:

delinquencies…

2013-01-25_0958_del

borrowings…

2013-01-25_0910_Borrowings

I guess it’s not necessary to mention the Monte dei Paschi di Siena scandal.

This is what window dressing is, and what the banks have being doing for some time now. Some believe that the banks operating beneath book value are just plain cheap; it is this lack of transparency and excess of debasement what represent their true value.

The explanation to this scheme from European banks & regulators is that banks are now primarily funding themselves with the short term revolving lines with the ECB.

In either case banks remain an interesting investment…

Realidad Española

enero 10, 2013 § Deja un comentario

A quien creerle?

Primero:

Euro Advances as Draghi Sees Recovery, Spain Exceeds Sale Target

Emma Charlton, ©2013 Bloomberg News

Published 6:36 am, Thursday, January 10, 2013

Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) — The euro rose to the strongest since July 2011 against the yen after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the economy should gradually recover and the decision to refrain from cutting interest rates was unanimous.

The 17-nation currency gained the most in almost four months against the dollar after Spain sold more than the maximum target at its first debt auction of the year, adding to signs the financial crisis is easing. The yen fell for a second day against the dollar on speculation Japanese policy makers will boost stimulus that tends to weaken the currency. Australia’s currency gained after Chinese imports increased.

http://www.sfgate.com/business/bloomberg/article/Euro-Advances-as-Draghi-Sees-Recovery-Spain-4182607.php

Segundo:

Spain Loan Delinquencies Defaulted Loans (millions of euros) – Bloomberg

2013-01-10_0929_Defaults_Sp

Spain Total Corporate Deposits (millions of euros) – Bloomberg

2013-01-10_0930_Deposits_Sp

 

A QUIEN LE CREES?

 

Hay un John Galt en Proceso?

noviembre 30, 2012 § Deja un comentario

Dos noticias sacadas de las paginas de “Atlas Shrugged”…

France’s president threatens to nationalise a steelworks

A SENSE of déjà vu struck France this week, as a Socialist government threatened to nationalise a steelworks to stop a multinational company from closing part of it. Cue memories of the early 1980s, when François Mitterrand took banks and industrial companies into public ownership. This time a threat by Arnaud Montebourg, the firebrand industry minister, was reinforced by François Hollande, the first Socialist president since Mitterrand. Before a meeting on November 27th with Lakshmi Mittal, the boss and main shareholder of ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steelmaker, Mr Hollande said that nationalisation was “on the agenda”. Politicians across the board also supported temporary state control.

http://www.economist.com/news/business/21567376-frances-president-threatens-nationalise-steelworks-blast-past?fsrc=rss

ECB Wins Ruling to Deny Access to Secret Greek Swap Files

The European Central Bank will be allowed to keep private files showing how Greece used derivatives to hide its debt after defeating the first court challenge using the bloc’s freedom of information rules.

“Disclosure of those documents would have undermined the protection of the public interest so far as concerns the economic policy of the European Union and Greece,” the EU General Court in Luxembourg said today, rejecting a request by Bloomberg News initially filed in August 2010.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-29/ecb-wins-ruling-to-deny-access-to-secret-greek-swap-files.html

Buen fin de semana.

Indices Alemanes

noviembre 9, 2012 § Deja un comentario

Interesante la divergencia en Alemania entre la bolsa ($DAX, línea punteada verde), el índice de confianza del consumidor (línea blanca) y el índice de actividad manufacturera (PMI Markit Survey, línea rayada roja).

En un mercado mas normal, y por normal me refiero a un mercado sin las extraordinarias y constantes intervenciones/manipulaciones de los bancos centrales, hubiéramos podido pensar que el mercado de capitales se estaba anticipando a una mejoría en los indicadores económicos. Sin embargo hoy en día me parece que esta relación esta rota y por el contrario no me sorprendería ver un ajuste por parte del $DAX.

¿Dónde estoy?

Actualmente estás explorando la categoría Economia en DIARIO DE R. GUZMAN HUERTA EN WALL STREET ARENA.

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