What’s driving the Market?

abril 3, 2013 § Deja un comentario

Despite a global economic downturn, despite Cyprus situation or a reduction in top line growth for US companies, the markets seems unstoppable.

What is driving the market in this 2013?

mkt_driver_2013

Answer: $325 billions.

Pretty much the same driver since 2009…

mkt_driver_09_13

Interesting fact is the timing of the Fed increases. Like 2011, this 2013 abrupt expansion in the Fed assets seems to be triggered by bad news (Europe).

Just when the patient seems to be waking up, the Fed increases the anesthesia dose.

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Bien Ben Bien!

febrero 1, 2013 § Deja un comentario

2013-02-01_1145

Stay classy San Diego!

Contradicciones de $AAPL

enero 24, 2013 § Deja un comentario

Originalmente publicado el 16/Nov/12. Sera?

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Desde el punto de vista de valuacion $AAPL presenta una oportunidad interesante de inversion a tan solo a P/E de 11.95. Sin embargo en cuestion de sentimiento de mercado…

Contradicciones de $AAPL

noviembre 16, 2012 § Deja un comentario

Desde el punto de vista de valuacion $AAPL presenta una oportunidad interesante de inversion a tan solo a P/E de 11.95. Sin embargo en cuestion de sentimiento de mercado…

Santo Contra el Rey del Crimen

octubre 1, 2012 § Deja un comentario

Conforme nos acercamos a las elecciones presidenciales americanas, solo existen noticias positivas (manipuladas?). El miércoles se tiene el primer debate presidencial, casualmente el miércoles se publican los datos mas recientes de desempleo. Sin duda un dato positivo este miercoles seria una muy buena y oportuna noticia para el candidato que actualmente ocupa la presidencia. No solo en México…

La noticia económica del día de hoy (Via Bloomberg).

Manufacturing in U.S. Expands Unexpectedly as Orders Rise

Manufacturing in the U.S. unexpectedly expanded in September, indicating the industry is stabilizing after three months of contraction.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-01/ism-index-of-u-s-manufacturing-increased-to-51-5-in-september.html

Mientras que las noticias económicas sin importancia.

Eurozone manufacturing downturn eases further

from Markit Economics

At 46.1 in September, the headline seasonally adjusted Markit Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted below the neutral 50.0 mark for the fourteenth successive month. Although the PMI rose to a six-month peak – up from 45.1 in August and above the earlier flash estimate of 46.0 – its average over Q3 2012 as a whole was only 45.1. This was below the prior quarter’s 45.4 and the weakest outcome since Q2 2009.

http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2012/oct/EZ_Manufacturing_ENG_1210_PR.pdf

UK Manufacturing PMI edges lower

from Markit Economics

The downturn in UK manufacturing production extended into its third successive month in September, as order inflows remained lacklustre and job losses continued to mount.

Key points:

  • Manufacturing PMI down to 48.4 in September
  • Production falls as new export orders decline
  • Cost inflation spikes on oil and food price increases

http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2012/oct/GB_Manufacturing_ENG_1210_PR.pdf

Chinese manufacturing output falls at fastest pace since March

from Markit Economics

Data in September signalled a stronger decline in Chinese manufacturing output, as the volume of new orders fell for the eleventh consecutive month. New export orders declined at the sharpest rate in 42 months amid reports of weak international demand, while lower workloads were linked to a fall in backlogs of work.

http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2012/oct/CN_Manufacturing_ENG_1210_PR.pdf

Japan

From Markit Economics

Manufacturing output falls sharply as exporters suffer from strong yen and falling demand

  • Manufacturing output falls sharply for second month running in August
  • PMI indicates further downturn in September
  • Downturn led by falling exports

http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2012/sep/Japan_manu_12_09_28.pdf

Santo en el Museo de Cera 2 [$SPX y mas divergencias]

agosto 10, 2012 § Deja un comentario

Por lo regular cuando los inversionistas tienen una expectativa positiva tienen mayor tolerancia al riesgo y buscan instrumentos de mayor riesgo/rendimiento (e.g. mercados de capitales, bonos da alto rendimiento (high yield), commodities, etc).

Ayer comentamos sobre el posicionamiento defensivo. Ahora podemos apreciar como el misterioso “apetito” de riesgo se esta limitando exclusivamente a los mercados de capitales y no a los mercados de deuda…

https://vozabierta.wordpress.com/2012/08/09/santo-en-el-museo-de-cera-spx-incertidumbre-y-defensivas/

Santo en el Museo de Cera [$SPX incertidumbre y defensivas]

agosto 9, 2012 § Deja un comentario

Durante los últimos meses hemos estado viendo como los sectores que representan dentro del ciclo económico crecimiento (i.e. sector industrial y materiales) se han visto de manera relativa opacados por un sector defensivo (i.e. servicios públicos “utilities”).

Ya los bajos volúmenes operados nos confirman la falta de convicción, ahora y de acuerdo a esto podríamos agregar un posicionamiento defensivo?

Cuanto mas para que se derrita el $SPX?

¿Dónde estoy?

Actualmente estás explorando la categoría Mercados en DIARIO DE R. GUZMAN HUERTA EN WALL STREET ARENA.

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